Lock-In and Team Effects: Recruiting and Success in College Football Athletics

Abstract

How important is recruiting to a football program’s success? While prior research has attempted to answer this question, we utilize an extensive panel set covering 13 years of games along with a two-stage least squares approach to investigate the effects of recruiting on team success. This article also includes new control variables to account for omitted variable bias that prior work may have missed. We also split our sample to investigate whether recruiting displays heterogeneous effects across schools. Additionally, we find evidence that the benefits of recruiting are driven by team-specific effects, indicating that team success may be more heavily derived from the ability of teams to harness and improve their recruits than their ability to utilize each athlete’s raw abilities. This leads to important revelations regarding future research into both the value of recruits and what drives a football team’s success.